NOAA ENSO Update: Another Winter in La Niña’s Grip? – November Update to 2022-23 Winter Outlook While it’s a little intimidating to put on these oversized shoes, I’m forging ahead in an annual ENSO Blog tradition and giving you all the juicy details about NOAA’s Winter Outlook (1). Regular readers may remember that Mike Halpert of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been the blog’s winter outlook guru for years, but following Mike’s retirement earlier […] Weather WeatherBrains | November 23, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO November 2022 Update: 76% Chance La Niña Continues Through Winter It’s very likely that La Niña will last through the winter (December–February), with a transition to ENSO-neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) expected during February–April. Specifically, there’s a 76% chance of La Niña through the winter and a 57% chance of neutral in the February–April period. Related: VIDEO: La Niña & El Niño Explained in Less Than 2 Minutes […] Weather WeatherBrains | November 11, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO October Update: 75% Chance La Niña Will Last Through Winter For what seems like the 247th month in a row, La Niña is still in charge in the tropical Pacific. It’s really only been about a year with continuous La Niña, as it took a break summer 2021 and re-developed October 2021, but it seems like longer! There’s a 75% chance La Niña will be present this winter (December–February); forecasters […] Weather SnowBrains | October 13, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO September 2022 Update: 91% Chance of Fall La Niña, 80% Chance Winter La Niña Ocean and atmospheric conditions tell us that La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern—currently reigns in the tropical Pacific. It’s looking very likely that the long-predicted third consecutive La Niña winter will happen, with a 91% chance of La Niña through September–November and an 80% chance through the early winter (November–January). 91%! That’s very high. […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 12, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: La Niña’s Delayed Effect on Sizzling Texas Summers It’s been a scorching summer in much of the US, but no state has sizzled more than Texas. Does this summer’s unusually persistent La Niña bear some of the responsibility for the extreme heat? In this blog post, we’ll try to figure that out! Related: August 2022 ENSO Update: La Niña Continues ENSO impacts on summer US climate: concurrent versus […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 29, 2022 0 Comments
How Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Affect Salmon? This article was originally published on climate.gov When we discuss the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (“ENSO” for short) at the blog, we often take a rather human or physics-y view of the climate phenomenon. We’ve published loads of articles discussing the mechanics for how ENSO works in the atmosphere and the ocean, and how ENSO impacts humans from droughts and wildfires […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022 0 Comments
August 2022 ENSO Update: La Niña Continues View this post on Instagram A post shared by NOAA Climate.gov (@noaaclimate) This article was originally published on climate.gov La Niña continues! It’s likely that the La Niña three-peat will happen: the chance that the current La Niña will last through early winter is over 70%. If it happens, this will be only the third time with three La Niña winters in a row […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA: July 2022 ENSO Update – 66% Chance of a La Niña Winter, ~5% Chance of El Niño Winter I’m in San Diego this week, gazing out across the Pacific toward La Niña’s cool tropical ocean surface. (I’m not here for Comic-Con, but there are a lot of posters around the city that keep that upcoming event in the forefront.) Just over my horizon, La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (“ENSO” for short)—remains in force, despite […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 15, 2022 0 Comments