NOAA ENSO April 2022 Update: 50-55% Chance of La Niña Continuing In To Fall La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific, with both the ocean and atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. The current forecast favors the continuation of La Niña through the summer (59% chance), with a slightly lower chance into the fall (50-55% chance). A third-year La Niña would be pretty unusual—we’ve only seen two others since 1950. I’ll run the numbers […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 14, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA February 2022 ENSO Update: La Niña Is Likely to Hang Around Through the Spring La Niña is likely to hang around through the spring, with a transition to neutral favored for the May–July period. Hop in, and we’ll cruise through some updates on current conditions and the recent past! On the road again The November–January average Oceanic Niño Index, that is, the three-month-average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical […] Weather WeatherBrains | February 11, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO January 2022 Update: 95% Chance La Niña Will Continue Through Spring Happy new year! This La Niña event is likely near peak strength as we start 2022. Related impacts to global weather and climate will continue through the rest of winter and into the spring, however, because climate impacts lag tropical Pacific sea surface temperature changes. Forecasters favor a transition to neutral in the April–June period. Chutes and Ladders The sea […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 24, 2022 0 Comments
NASA: La Niña Returns for a Second Winter For the second year in a row, the cooler sister to El Niño showed up at the winter party in the Eastern Pacific. La Niña is expected to stick around until at least spring 2022 in the Northern Hemisphere. Part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, La Niña appears when energized easterly trade winds intensify the upwelling of cooler water […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 13, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update: Forecasters Are Confident La Niña Here Through Spring La Niña continues as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter, and forecasters are confident that it will hang around through the rest of the winter. This La Niña, the second in two years, will likely transition to ENSO-neutral sometime in the spring. There’s about a 60% chance the late spring and summer will feature neutral conditions. Related: NOAA ENSO December […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 10, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO December Update: Annual NOAA Winter Outlook Update – What Affect Will La Niña Have This Winter? If you’re still searching for something to talk about with Aunt Edna at the Thanksgiving dinner table, I have some good news for you – it’s time for my annual NOAA Winter Outlook post! (footnote #1) If this post gives you a feeling of déjà vu, I can understand why; for the second year in a row, La Niña has […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 2, 2021 0 Comments
What About Snow During La Niña Winters? This article was originally published on Climate.gov by Dr. Stephen Baxter. This is a guest post by Dr. Stephen Baxter who is a NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) meteorologist and does applied research on subseasonal-to-seasonal climate variability. In particular he specializes in understanding how the middle-to-high latitude circulation is influenced by the tropics versus other processes. He also has a […] Weather SnowBrains | October 15, 2021 0 Comments
October 2021 ENSO Update: La Niña is Here! This article originally appeared on Climate.gov and was published by Emily Becker Our second-year La Niña has materialized, as indicated by the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. There’s an 87% chance of La Niña this winter, the season when North American weather and climate are most affected by ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Niño/La Niña system). The […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 15, 2021 1 Comment
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