Official NOAA August 2015 El Nino Update: Odds Are Good for California NOAA just released their latest El Nino update. They’re calling it Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious, which we think is a good sign. They expect that the current El Nino will peak in late fall/early winter and that it will be one of the strongest El Nino ever recorded. As of August, NOAA and IRI forecasters are predicting this El Niño will peak in the late fall/early winter with 3-month-average sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region near or exceeding 2.0°C (3.6°F) above normal. If this forecast comes true, it will place the 2015 event among the strongest El Niños in the (admittedly short) 1950-2015 historical record. What would this mean for expected impacts in the United States? Weather SnowBrains | August 13, 2015 3 Comments
Official NOAA El Nino Update: 90% Chance El Nino Will Continue Into Winter 2015/16 NOAA just released their latest El Nino update today and they are saying that there is now greater than a 90% chance that the current El Nino will continue through our Northern winter 2015/16. There is even a 80% that the current El Nino will continue through Spring 2016. Boom! NOAA is also saying that many models are predicting the current El Nino to develop into a Strong El Nino during the norther winter of 2015/16. 4 of the 5 recorded Strong El Nino’s in California have resulted in Above Average Snowfall. Weather SnowBrains | July 9, 2015 2 Comments
Strong El Nino Forecast for 2015/16 North American Winter: The International Research Institute of Climate Sociology (IRI) based at Colombia University, NY released their latest El Nino update today and they are calling for a strong El Nino for winter 2015/16. That IRI El Nino update states two important things: A weak to moderate El Nino is currently occurring will continue until July, 2015 A moderate to strong El Nino will develop this summer and continue into 2016. We only have 5 strong El Ninos on record in Northern California and 4 out of 5 of them delivered above average precipitation in California. Once El Nino cools […] Weather SnowBrains | May 21, 2015 7 Comments
Official NOAA El Nino Update: 90% El Nino Will Continue Until 2016 A strong El Nino was hyped up last summer then fizzled and didn’t show up until March 2015. Now, reports are going nuts about El Nino being moderate to strong once again. NOAA weighed in today saying that they think El Nino has an 80% chance of staying around until New Years 2016. So, what does El Nino during our summer mean for North America? Pretty much nothing since El Nino’s main impacts in North America occur during winter. At this point, it’s too early to forecast what […] Weather SnowBrains | May 14, 2015 0 Comments
El Nino FINALLY Arrives | NOAA Report: After months of straddling the fence, the atmosphere and ocean over the tropical Pacific have finally leaned far enough toward El Niño that forecasters have declared an El Niño advisory. In this week’s ENSO blog, Emily Becker with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center explains the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that finally—but barely—tipped the scales. This map pair from the blog shows how El Niño has affected U.S. precipitation during the 10 years of the modern instrument record during which El Niño was present […] Weather SnowBrains | March 6, 2015 1 Comment
Lake Tahoe Long Range Winter Outlook & El Nino Update Here we go again. It’s hard not to get discouraged. The climate models looked so promising the last week of October, now not so much… California is sitting under an omega blocking ridge. An omega ridge is characterized by a low-high-low from west to east, which doesn’t break down very easily. Geographically for Tahoe it is delineated by a upper trough by the dateline, an upper ridge in the far west, and an upper trough for the Eastern continental U.S. This pattern is commonly a very persistent one which typically takes 21 days to cycle. […] Weather WeatherBrains | November 5, 2014 5 Comments
NOAA El Nino Update from Today: 67% Chance of El Nino This Fall Today, NOAA released their latest El Nino update. Here is the summary of this latest report: Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 – January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome). – NOAA […] Weather SnowBrains | October 9, 2014 1 Comment
NOAA 2014/15 El Nino Winter Outlook for the USA: NOAA just released their latest El Nino update on September 4th. They are now saying there is a 60-65% chance of El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere’s Fall & Winter. These are the same numbers we saw in their El Nino update a month ago. If we do have El Nino this winter it will be a weak El Nino. What does a weak El Nino mean for precipitation in North America? “Approximately one-third of the (weak) events featuring above-average precipitation, one-third near-average precipitation, and one-third below-average precipitation” – NOAA NOAA’s latest El Nino update is below: […] Weather SnowBrains | September 7, 2014 1 Comment
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