NOAA: El Niño Has Arrived – Could Lead to New Temperature Records Expected to be moderate-to-strong by late fall/early winter The expected El Niño has emerged, according to scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. In the monthly outlook released today, forecasters issued an El Niño Advisory, noting that El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter. Related: Australian Bureau […] Weather SnowBrains | June 9, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA June 2023 Outlook: Warm Start to June Expected for Northern CONUS The NOAA recently released its outlook for June 2023. It’s expected to be warmer than normal across the northern CONUS and all Alaska, as well as parts of the southwest. The High Plains, Central Rockies, and Great Basin areas can all expect higher than average precipitation. Discussion below: Expect a warm start to June throughout the northern CONUS. This likely warm […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 22, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO April Update: 62% Chance of El Niño Conditions for May–July Well, that was quick! Just two months ago I was writing about La Niña for what seemed like the 97th month in a row, and then by March La Niña had departed. Today we’re hoisting an El Niño Watch, meaning that conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño conditions within the next 6 months. In fact, there’s a […] Weather SnowBrains | April 13, 2023 0 Comments
How Did They Do? NOAA Analyzes its 2022/23 Winter Outlook Don’t look now, but it’s winter outlook verification time! A time when I like to take readers on a statistical sojourn, a mathematical migration, through last year’s winter outlook. By the end of this post, you’ll have been provided with a non-alcoholic, numbered nightcap in the form of an answer to the question, “How did the winter outlook do?” (Sorry. […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 24, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA February 2023 Outlook: The Pattern That Brought Record-Breaking Snow to the West is Coming to an End The NOAA recently released its outlook for February. With precipitation returning to normal, or below-normal, it looks like the snow that has slammed the west for the last couple of months will return to normal. The discussion is below: Below-normal temperatures are favored for the Alaska Panhandle, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern California eastward to the Northern Plains. Above normal temperature […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 31, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA Updated January Outlook: Forecast Looks Perfect For California The NOAA just updated its outlook for January 2023. The forecast looks perfect for the Sierra Nevada, with below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation expected. The full discussion is below: Early in the month, much of the CONUS is expected to experience above-normal temperatures, while below-normal temperatures are likely from California to the Intermountain West. During week-2, the favoring of above-normal temperatures […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 3, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA Climate Report: US Hit With Historic Snowfall, Late-Season Hurricane in November Last month a number of significant weather events struck the U.S., including late-season Hurricane Nicole and record-breaking lake-effect snow in parts of New York. Despite an overall average month for temperatures and precipitation, the U.S. saw decreased drought across the nation, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Below are highlights from NOAA’s U.S. climate report […] WeatherBrains | December 9, 2022 0 Comments
[UPDATED] NOAA December Outlook: Colder and Wetter Than Normal for the West The NOAA recently updated its outlook for December. It’s looking colder and wetter than normal for the majority of the west. Bring it! Full discussion below: Arctic high pressure is forecast to shift southward to the western and north-central CONUS at the beginning of December. Below-normal temperatures are favored for the north-central CONUS along with parts of the West. The largest […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 5, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update: Another Winter in La Niña’s Grip? – November Update to 2022-23 Winter Outlook While it’s a little intimidating to put on these oversized shoes, I’m forging ahead in an annual ENSO Blog tradition and giving you all the juicy details about NOAA’s Winter Outlook (1). Regular readers may remember that Mike Halpert of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been the blog’s winter outlook guru for years, but following Mike’s retirement earlier […] Weather WeatherBrains | November 23, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA 8-14 Day Outlook: Colder in the East, Warmer in the West Brought to you by Ski.com Yesterday the NOAA released its outlook for the end of November. The second half of November into December typically sees the majority of ski resorts open for the season; will Mother Nature be kind to them? Discussion is below: “…the western CONUS is favored for above normal temperatures, especially Washington and Oregon. Snow cover in higher […] Weather WeatherBrains | November 15, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA Nov-Dec-Jan Outlook: Majority of Ski States to See Unseasonably Warm Start to Winter The November-December-January 2022-2023 temperature outlook depicts elevated odds for above-normal seasonal mean temperatures for western Alaska, much of the western U.S. to include the central Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and Southwest, eastward to include much of the central and southern Great Plains, areas of the Southeast and along the Atlantic seaboard. The greatest likelihood for warmer than normal […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 21, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA November 2022 Outlook: Expect Above-Normal Temperatures and Normal to Below-Normal Precipitation The NOAA just released its outlook for November 2022. As the month when the majority of ski resorts begin opening, we’re hoping for cold and snowy to kick off the season right. Related: NOAA 2022-23 Winter Outlook: What Weather Will The Triple Dip La Niña Bring This Winter? Expect above-normal temperatures for the majority of the west and the northeast, […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 21, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA 8-14 Day Outlook: Most of the Country Will be Warmer Than Normal Ski season is just around the corner and several resorts have begun making snow which must mean winter weather is on its way, right? Unfortunately not. Higher than normal temperatures are expected across most of the country; bad news for snowmakers. Related: NOAA ENSO October Update: 75% Chance La Niña Will Last Through Winter Discussion from the NOAA below: This outlook […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 14, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA Outlook September 2022: Hotter and Drier Than Normal for Most of Country Here’s the NOAA’s September outlook. It’s looking warmer and drier than normal for the majority of the nation. Related: August 2022 ENSO Update: La Niña Continues The abridged discussion is below: Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the west-central CONUS. The strongest probabilities (greater than 50 percent) of above-normal temperatures are indicated near the Four Corners region southeastward to extreme western Texas. […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 31, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA Seasonal Outlook: Here’s What December, January, and February Might Look Like The NOAA released its seasonal outlooks late last week, including December, January, and February 2022-23. It’s looking warmer and dryer than normal for most of the country, the exception being the PNW and Alaska, where they’re forecasting colder and wetter. TEMPERATURE The outlook for December-January-February (DJF) 2022-2023 now slightly favors below-normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains, reflecting […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 22, 2022 1 Comment
U.S. Climate Summary for July 2022 The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in July was 76.4°F, which is 2.8 °F above average, ranking third warmest in the 128-year record. Generally, temperatures were above average and/or record-warm across nearly all of the Lower 48, with Texas having its warmest July, May-July and April-July on record. In addition to the record warmth across Texas, near-record warmth was […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022 0 Comments
August 2022 ENSO Update: La Niña Continues View this post on Instagram A post shared by NOAA Climate.gov (@noaaclimate) This article was originally published on climate.gov La Niña continues! It’s likely that the La Niña three-peat will happen: the chance that the current La Niña will last through early winter is over 70%. If it happens, this will be only the third time with three La Niña winters in a row […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA Issues Official La Niña Advisory For Upcoming Winter This work was originally published on noaa.gov La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance). During June, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened across most of the central and […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 8, 2022 1 Comment
NOAA August 2022 Outlook: Majority of CONUS Hotter Than Normal The NOAA just released its outlook for August. La Niña remains the primary remote influence on the August 2022 temperature and precipitation outlooks. Related: NOAA 8-14 Day Outlook: Majority of CONUS Will be Hotter Than Normal, West Wetter Than Normal The full discussion is below: The previous mid-month August 2022 Temperature Outlook favored enhanced above normal temperature probabilities over most […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 1, 2022 0 Comments
New Utah Hazard Planning Tool Examines Past, Present, and Future Natural Hazards in the American West, Including Avalanches Western Water Assessment (WWA), a NOAA RISA team, has just released the Utah Hazard Planning Tool, which provides resources about the historical incidence, current risk, and future projections of natural hazards in Utah and the West as a whole. The resource provides links to online tools and data, and brief descriptions of the information and how to access it. The […] Industry News SnowBrains | June 27, 2022 1 Comment
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