NOAA: When Rivers Reach the Sky – What Caused 18-Feet of Snow to Fall on California in December? This past December, a mind-boggling 18 feet of snowfall fell in the California Sierra Nevada Mountains! How does so much snow fall in one place in such a short period of time? One of the primary phenomena responsible for such extreme rain and snowfall, particularly in regions like the western U.S., is the atmospheric river. Like their terrestrial counterparts, atmospheric […] WeatherBrains | March 14, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA February 2022 ENSO Update: La Niña Is Likely to Hang Around Through the Spring La Niña is likely to hang around through the spring, with a transition to neutral favored for the May–July period. Hop in, and we’ll cruise through some updates on current conditions and the recent past! On the road again The November–January average Oceanic Niño Index, that is, the three-month-average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical […] Weather WeatherBrains | February 11, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO January 2022 Update: 95% Chance La Niña Will Continue Through Spring Happy new year! This La Niña event is likely near peak strength as we start 2022. Related impacts to global weather and climate will continue through the rest of winter and into the spring, however, because climate impacts lag tropical Pacific sea surface temperature changes. Forecasters favor a transition to neutral in the April–June period. Chutes and Ladders The sea […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 24, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update: Forecasters Are Confident La Niña Here Through Spring La Niña continues as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter, and forecasters are confident that it will hang around through the rest of the winter. This La Niña, the second in two years, will likely transition to ENSO-neutral sometime in the spring. There’s about a 60% chance the late spring and summer will feature neutral conditions. Related: NOAA ENSO December […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 10, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO December Update: Annual NOAA Winter Outlook Update – What Affect Will La Niña Have This Winter? If you’re still searching for something to talk about with Aunt Edna at the Thanksgiving dinner table, I have some good news for you – it’s time for my annual NOAA Winter Outlook post! (footnote #1) If this post gives you a feeling of déjà vu, I can understand why; for the second year in a row, La Niña has […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 2, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO November Update: 90% Chance La Niña Will Continue Through the Winter La Niña conditions reign in the tropical Pacific, with about a 90% chance of remaining through the winter. Get your popcorn and settle down on the couch—it’s time for this month’s ENSO cinema. Romantic comedy A recurring theme here at the ENSO Blog is the on-again, off-again relationship between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. ENSO (short for El […] Weather WeatherBrains | November 11, 2021 0 Comments
What About Snow During La Niña Winters? This article was originally published on Climate.gov by Dr. Stephen Baxter. This is a guest post by Dr. Stephen Baxter who is a NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) meteorologist and does applied research on subseasonal-to-seasonal climate variability. In particular he specializes in understanding how the middle-to-high latitude circulation is influenced by the tropics versus other processes. He also has a […] Weather SnowBrains | October 15, 2021 0 Comments
October 2021 ENSO Update: La Niña is Here! This article originally appeared on Climate.gov and was published by Emily Becker Our second-year La Niña has materialized, as indicated by the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. There’s an 87% chance of La Niña this winter, the season when North American weather and climate are most affected by ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Niño/La Niña system). The […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 15, 2021 1 Comment
NOAA: Double-Dip La Niña Emerges This post was originally published on NOAA.gov A La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 15, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA: ENSO and Climate Change – What Does the New IPCC Report Say? This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Tom Di Liberto. Last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released their Working Group 1 report on the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change (1). This huge report, both in terms of importance and length (the thing is nearly 4000 pages!), covers literally everything you can […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 24, 2021 1 Comment
NOAA September 2021 ENSO Update: Chance of a La Niña Winter Increased to 70-80% This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker. It’s likely that the tropical Pacific is on the verge of getting into the La Niña groove, and forecasters estimate a 70-80% chance of La Niña this winter. NOAA’s forecast discussion says “the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral [in August], but is edging toward La Niña.” […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 9, 2021 1 Comment
NOAA: Forecasters Increase Likelihood of La Niña Winter to 70% This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Nat Johnson ENSO-neutral conditions continue in the tropics, but ENSO’s next performance may be approaching, as forecasters have increased the likelihood (~70% probability) that La Niña will reemerge by early winter. A La Niña Watch remains in effect. Related: La Niña Explained: July, the ENSO, Winter 21/22 […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 13, 2021 2 Comments
NOAA: ENSO as a Climate Conductor for Global Crop Yields This is a guest post on the climate.gov ENSO blog by Weston Anderson (@HydroClim) who is an assistant research scientist with the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, where he works with the Famine Early Warning System team. A couple of weeks ago, NOAA issued a La Niña Watch based on the possible development of a La […] WeatherBrains | July 23, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA July 2021 ENSO Update: La Niña Watch Issued With 55% Chance of Lasting Through Winter As things stand with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific and favored to last through the North American summer and into the fall. But forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have issued a La Niña Watch, which means they see La Niña likely emerging (~55%) during the September-November period and lasting through […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 8, 2021 3 Comments
NOAA June 2021 ENSO Update: Too Early to Predict La Niña for 21/22, <10% Chance of El Niño This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the tropical Pacific, and NOAA forecasters think they’re likely to continue through the summer. Neutral is slightly favored through the fall, although it’s a close call between continued neutral and re-developing La Niña for the late fall and winter. Related: […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 10, 2021 2 Comments
NOAA: We Know All About El Niño and La Niña, But What About ‘Pacific Decadal Oscillation’? This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Tom Di Liberto We talk a lot about El Niño and La Niña at the ENSO blog, but there are other phenomena that garner interest among scientists, even if they do not have the same brand recognition as El Niño. So while we wait for a potential […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 3, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update: Double-Dipping – Why Does La Niña Often Occur in Consecutive Winters? This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Nat Johnson As the 2020–21 La Niña has come to an end, leaving us with neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, we now wonder if we have seen the last of La Niña for a while or if we will see another dip into La Niña conditions […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 28, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA May 2021 ENSO Update: Bye for Now, La Niña! This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker La Niña conditions have ended and NOAA forecasters estimate about a 67% chance that neutral conditions will continue through the summer. The ENSO forecast for the fall is less confident, with odds of a second-year La Niña currently hovering around 50–55%. Spring cleaning If you’ve […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 13, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA: Is ENSO Running a Fever, or Is It Global Warming? This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Michelle L’Heureux I want to kick off this blog post by introducing you to a force of nature in the climate community, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh. He just got recognized by the European Meteorological Society with a Technology Achievement Award for building the KNMI Climate Explorer. This website, which you […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 23, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA: April 2021 ENSO Update – La Niña Hanging On But Will Transition to Neutral in Next Month This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker La Niña is hanging on in the tropical Pacific, but it’s likely a transition to neutral will occur in the next month or so, and the chance of neutral goes up to 80% in May–July. Grab your goggles and your running shoes! We’re going to […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 8, 2021 0 Comments
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