NOAA ENSO Blog: Has Climate Change Already Affected ENSO? For more than 30 years, climate researchers have been puzzling about how human-forced climate change affects the El Niรฑo Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the warm phase of which we refer to as El Niรฑo and the cold phase as La Niรฑa. There are two aspects to this question: Has climate change affected ENSO already? and How will climate change affect ENSO [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | July 30, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA May 2023 ENSO Update: El Niรฑo Knocking on the Door The tropical Pacific sure knows how to get out of a rut! Just two months after declaring the demise of an almost interminable La Niรฑa, above-average surface temperatures have reclaimed the tropical Pacific, and temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific are expected to continue to rise. Consequently, an El Niรฑo Watch remains in place, with El Niรฑo conditions likely to develop within the next [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | May 12, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: Why Making El Niรฑo Forecasts in the Spring Is Especially Anxiety-Inducing Given the relatively high probabilities for El Niรฑo in our teamโs April 2023 ENSO update, I decided to team up with some of my scientific colleagues, Antonietta Capotondi (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory and University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) and Aaron Levine (@afzlevine, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies), to explain why [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | May 8, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO April Update: 62% Chance of El Niรฑo Conditions for MayโJuly Well, that was quick! Just two months ago I was writing about La Niรฑa for what seemed like the 97th month in a row, and then by March La Niรฑa had departed. Today weโre hoisting an El Niรฑo Watch, meaning that conditions are favorable for the development of El Niรฑo conditions within the next 6 months. In fact, thereโs a [โฆ] Weather SnowBrains | April 13, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update February 2023: La Niรฑa is Weakening โ 85% Chance of Neutral Conditions Feb โ Apr La Niรฑaโthe cool phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation climate patternโweakened over the past month, and forecasters expect a transition to neutral conditions in the next couple of months. Weโll check in with the tropical Pacific to see how things are going before continuing the journey into understanding winter daily temperature variability that I started in Decemberโs post. Current events [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | February 9, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update Jan 2023: 82% Chance La Niรฑa Will End by Springtime Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean from mid-November 2022 through early January 2023 compared to the long-term average. East of the International Dateline (180ห), waters remained cooler than average, a sign of La Niรฑa. Graphic by Climate.gov, based on data from NOAAโs Environmental Visualization Lab. Description of historical baseline period. Hello from the 103rd Annual Meeting of the [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | January 17, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO December 2022 Update: La Niรฑa Will Transition to Neutral in Jan-March As our regular readers will be very aware, La Niรฑa has been rolling along in the tropical Pacific for many months, and our third La Niรฑa winter in a row is underway. La Niรฑa is the cool phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (โENSOโ for short) climate pattern. The current forecast is for La Niรฑa to continue into the winter, [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | December 9, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update: Another Winter in La Niรฑaโs Grip? โ November Update to 2022-23 Winter Outlook While itโs a little intimidating to put on these oversized shoes, Iโm forging ahead in an annual ENSO Blog tradition and giving you all the juicy details about NOAAโs Winter Outlook (1). Regular readers may remember that Mike Halpert of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been the blogโs winter outlook guru for years, but following Mikeโs retirement earlier [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | November 23, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO November 2022 Update: 76% Chance La Niรฑa Continues Through Winter Itโs very likely that La Niรฑa will last through the winter (DecemberยญโFebruary), with a transition to ENSO-neutral (neither La Niรฑa nor El Niรฑo) expected during FebruaryโApril. Specifically, thereโs a 76% chance of La Niรฑa through the winter and a 57% chance of neutral in the FebruaryยญโApril period. Related: VIDEO: La Niรฑa & El Niรฑo Explained in Less Than 2 Minutes [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | November 11, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO October Update: 75% Chance La Niรฑa Will Last Through Winter For what seems like the 247th month in a row, La Niรฑa is still in charge in the tropical Pacific. Itโs really only been about a year with continuous La Niรฑa, as it took a break summer 2021 and re-developed October 2021, but it seems like longer! Thereโs a 75% chance La Niรฑa will be present this winter (DecemberโFebruary); forecasters [โฆ] Weather SnowBrains | October 13, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO September 2022 Update: 91% Chance of Fall La Niรฑa, 80% Chance Winter La Niรฑa Ocean and atmospheric conditions tell us that La Niรฑaโthe cool phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate patternโcurrently reigns in the tropical Pacific. Itโs looking very likely that the long-predicted third consecutive La Niรฑa winter will happen, with a 91% chance of La Niรฑa through SeptemberโNovember and an 80% chance through the early winter (NovemberโJanuary). 91%! Thatโs very high. [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | September 12, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: La Niรฑaโs Delayed Effect on Sizzling Texas Summers Itโs been a scorching summer in much of the US, but no state has sizzled more than Texas. Does this summerโs unusually persistent La Niรฑa bear some of the responsibility for the extreme heat? In this blog post, weโll try to figure that out! Related: August 2022 ENSO Update: La Niรฑa Continues ENSO impacts on summer US climate: concurrent versus [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | August 29, 2022 0 Comments
How Does El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Affect Salmon? This article was originally published on climate.gov When we discuss the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (โENSOโ for short) at the blog, we often take a rather human or physics-y view of the climate phenomenon. Weโve published loads of articles discussing the mechanics for how ENSO works in the atmosphere and the ocean, and how ENSO impacts humans from droughts and wildfires [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022 0 Comments
August 2022 ENSO Update: La Niรฑa Continues View this post on Instagram A post shared by NOAA Climate.gov (@noaaclimate) This article was originally published on climate.gov La Niรฑa continues! Itโs likely that the La Niรฑa three-peat will happen: the chance that the current La Niรฑa will last through early winter is over 70%. If it happens, this will be only the third time with three La Niรฑa winters in a row [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA: July 2022 ENSO Update โ 66% Chance of a La Niรฑa Winter, ~5% Chance of El Niรฑo Winter Iโm in San Diego this week, gazing out across the Pacific toward La Niรฑaโs cool tropical ocean surface. (Iโm not here for Comic-Con, but there are a lot of posters around the city that keep that upcoming event in the forefront.) Just over my horizon, La Niรฑaโthe cool phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (โENSOโ for short)โremains in force, despite [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | July 15, 2022 0 Comments
June 2022 ENSO Update: Triple Dip? 59% Chance of La Niรฑa by Early Next Winter Iโm definitely starting to sound like a broken record here! La Niรฑa is favored to continue through the summer and into the winter. That said, chances of La Niรฑa through summer have a fairly small edge over chances of a transition to neutralโ52% for La Niรฑa vs. 46% for neutral in JulyโSeptember. Thereโs about a 59% chance of La Niรฑa [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | June 10, 2022 0 Comments
May 2022 ENSO Update: 61% Chance of Another La Niรฑa Next Fall and Early Winter Written by Emily Becker and published on climate.gov on May 12, 2022 May 2022 ENSO update: piece of cake La Niรฑa continued through April, and forecasters estimate a 61% chance of a La Niรฑa three-peat for next fall and early winter. Current El Niรฑo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, the entire El Niรฑo and La Niรฑa system) conditions, the forecast for the rest [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | May 12, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO April 2022 Update: 50-55% Chance of La Niรฑa Continuing In To Fall La Niรฑa continues in the tropical Pacific, with both the ocean and atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niรฑa conditions. The current forecast favors the continuation of La Niรฑa through the summer (59% chance), with a slightly lower chance into the fall (50-55% chance). A third-year La Niรฑa would be pretty unusualโweโve only seen two others since 1950. Iโll run the numbers [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | April 14, 2022 0 Comments
How Did They Do? NOAA Analyzes its 2021/22 Winter Outlook Some would call it the most famous annual March tradition. No, Iโm not talking about March Madness or St. Patrickโs Day. Iโm talking about our annual look back at the Climate Prediction Centerโs Winter Outlook to see how well it did. Warning: Some math will follow. At the ENSO Blog, weโre not the types to simply give you a thumbs [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | April 8, 2022 1 Comment
NOAA ENSO March 2022 Update: La Niรฑa to Continue in to Summer and Potentially Beyond Three-bean salads are a blend of sweet-sour tastiness, implying all good things come in threes. Well, depending on your opinion of La Niรฑa, maybe not all good things, as La Niรฑaโthe cool phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation climate patternโreasserted itself in the tropical Pacific this past month with some of the strongest atmosphere-ocean coupling of our double-dip La Niรฑas [โฆ] Weather WeatherBrains | March 14, 2022 0 Comments