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ENSO

NOAA ENSO Blog: Has Climate Change Already Affected ENSO?

For more than 30 years, climate researchers have been puzzling about how human-forced climate change affects the El Niรฑo Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the warm phase of which we refer to as El Niรฑo and the cold phase as La Niรฑa. There are two aspects to this question: Has climate change affected ENSO already? and How will climate change affect ENSO [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | July 30, 2023
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NOAA May 2023 ENSO Update: El Niรฑo Knocking on the Door

The tropical Pacific sure knows how to get out of a rut! Just two months after declaring the demise of an almost interminable La Niรฑa, above-average surface temperatures have reclaimed the tropical Pacific, and temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific are expected to continue to rise. Consequently, an El Niรฑo Watch remains in place, with El Niรฑo conditions likely to develop within the next [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | May 12, 2023
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NOAA ENSO Blog: Why Making El Niรฑo Forecasts in the Spring Is Especially Anxiety-Inducing

Given the relatively high probabilities for El Niรฑo in our teamโ€™s April 2023 ENSO update, I decided to team up with some of my scientific colleagues, Antonietta Capotondi (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory and University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) and Aaron Levine (@afzlevine, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies), to explain why [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | May 8, 2023
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NOAA ENSO April Update: 62% Chance of El Niรฑo Conditions for Mayโ€“July

Well, that was quick! Just two months ago I was writing about La Niรฑa for what seemed like the 97th month in a row, and then by March La Niรฑa had departed. Today weโ€™re hoisting an El Niรฑo Watch, meaning that conditions are favorable for the development of El Niรฑo conditions within the next 6 months. In fact, thereโ€™s a [โ€ฆ]

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Avatar photo SnowBrains | April 13, 2023
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NOAA ENSO Update February 2023: La Niรฑa is Weakening โ€“ 85% Chance of Neutral Conditions Feb โ€“ Apr

La Niรฑaโ€”the cool phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation climate patternโ€”weakened over the past month, and forecasters expect a transition to neutral conditions in the next couple of months. Weโ€™ll check in with the tropical Pacific to see how things are going before continuing the journey into understanding winter daily temperature variability that I started in Decemberโ€™s post. Current events [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | February 9, 2023
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NOAA ENSO Update Jan 2023: 82% Chance La Niรฑa Will End by Springtime

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean from mid-November 2022 through early January 2023 compared to the long-term average. East of the International Dateline (180หš), waters remained cooler than average, a sign of La Niรฑa. Graphic by Climate.gov, based on data from NOAAโ€™s Environmental Visualization Lab. Description of historical baseline period. Hello from the 103rd Annual Meeting of the [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | January 17, 2023
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NOAA ENSO December 2022 Update: La Niรฑa Will Transition to Neutral in Jan-March

As our regular readers will be very aware, La Niรฑa has been rolling along in the tropical Pacific for many months, and our third La Niรฑa winter in a row is underway. La Niรฑa is the cool phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (โ€œENSOโ€ for short) climate pattern. The current forecast is for La Niรฑa to continue into the winter, [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | December 9, 2022
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NOAA ENSO Update: Another Winter in La Niรฑaโ€™s Grip? โ€“ November Update to 2022-23 Winter Outlook

La Niรฑa,

While itโ€™s a little intimidating to put on these oversized shoes, Iโ€™m forging ahead in an annual ENSO Blog tradition and giving you all the juicy details about NOAAโ€™s Winter Outlook (1). Regular readers may remember that Mike Halpert of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been the blogโ€™s winter outlook guru for years, but following Mikeโ€™s retirement earlier [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | November 23, 2022
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NOAA ENSO November 2022 Update: 76% Chance La Niรฑa Continues Through Winter

Itโ€™s very likely that La Niรฑa will last through the winter (Decemberยญโ€“February), with a transition to ENSO-neutral (neither La Niรฑa nor El Niรฑo) expected during Februaryโ€“April. Specifically, thereโ€™s a 76% chance of La Niรฑa through the winter and a 57% chance of neutral in the Februaryยญโ€“April period. Related: VIDEO: La Niรฑa & El Niรฑo Explained in Less Than 2 Minutes [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | November 11, 2022
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NOAA ENSO October Update: 75% Chance La Niรฑa Will Last Through Winter

ENSO, October, la niรฑa

For what seems like the 247th month in a row, La Niรฑa is still in charge in the tropical Pacific. Itโ€™s really only been about a year with continuous La Niรฑa, as it took a break summer 2021 and re-developed October 2021, but it seems like longer! Thereโ€™s a 75% chance La Niรฑa will be present this winter (Decemberโ€“February); forecasters [โ€ฆ]

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Avatar photo SnowBrains | October 13, 2022
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NOAA ENSO September 2022 Update: 91% Chance of Fall La Niรฑa, 80% Chance Winter La Niรฑa

Ocean and atmospheric conditions tell us that La Niรฑaโ€”the cool phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate patternโ€”currently reigns in the tropical Pacific. Itโ€™s looking very likely that the long-predicted third consecutive La Niรฑa winter will happen, with a 91% chance of La Niรฑa through Septemberโ€“November and an 80% chance through the early winter (Novemberโ€“January). 91%! Thatโ€™s very high. [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | September 12, 2022
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NOAA ENSO Blog: La Niรฑaโ€™s Delayed Effect on Sizzling Texas Summers

Texas

Itโ€™s been a scorching summer in much of the US, but no state has sizzled more than Texas. Does this summerโ€™s unusually persistent La Niรฑa bear some of the responsibility for the extreme heat? In this blog post, weโ€™ll try to figure that out! Related: August 2022 ENSO Update: La Niรฑa Continues ENSO impacts on summer US climate: concurrent versus [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | August 29, 2022
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How Does El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Affect Salmon?

This article was originally published on climate.gov When we discuss the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (โ€œENSOโ€ for short) at the blog, we often take a rather human or physics-y view of the climate phenomenon. Weโ€™ve published loads of articles discussing the mechanics for how ENSO works in the atmosphere and the ocean, and how ENSO impacts humans from droughts and wildfires [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022
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August 2022 ENSO Update: La Niรฑa Continues

View this post on Instagram A post shared by NOAA Climate.gov (@noaaclimate) This article was originally published on climate.gov La Niรฑa continues! Itโ€™s likely that the La Niรฑa three-peat will happen: the chance that the current La Niรฑa will last through early winter is over 70%. If it happens, this will be only the third time with three La Niรฑa winters in a row [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022
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NOAA: July 2022 ENSO Update โ€“ 66% Chance of a La Niรฑa Winter, ~5% Chance of El Niรฑo Winter

Iโ€™m in San Diego this week, gazing out across the Pacific toward La Niรฑaโ€™s cool tropical ocean surface. (Iโ€™m not here for Comic-Con, but there are a lot of posters around the city that keep that upcoming event in the forefront.) Just over my horizon, La Niรฑaโ€”the cool phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (โ€œENSOโ€ for short)โ€”remains in force, despite [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | July 15, 2022
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June 2022 ENSO Update: Triple Dip? 59% Chance of La Niรฑa by Early Next Winter

Iโ€™m definitely starting to sound like a broken record here! La Niรฑa is favored to continue through the summer and into the winter. That said, chances of La Niรฑa through summer have a fairly small edge over chances of a transition to neutralโ€”52% for La Niรฑa vs. 46% for neutral in Julyโ€“September. Thereโ€™s about a 59% chance of La Niรฑa [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | June 10, 2022
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May 2022 ENSO Update: 61% Chance of Another La Niรฑa Next Fall and Early Winter

Written by Emily Becker and published on climate.gov on May 12, 2022 May 2022 ENSO update: piece of cake La Niรฑa continued through April, and forecasters estimate a 61% chance of a La Niรฑa three-peat for next fall and early winter. Current El Niรฑo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, the entire El Niรฑo and La Niรฑa system) conditions, the forecast for the rest [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | May 12, 2022
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NOAA ENSO April 2022 Update: 50-55% Chance of La Niรฑa Continuing In To Fall

La Niรฑa continues in the tropical Pacific, with both the ocean and atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niรฑa conditions. The current forecast favors the continuation of La Niรฑa through the summer (59% chance), with a slightly lower chance into the fall (50-55% chance). A third-year La Niรฑa would be pretty unusualโ€”weโ€™ve only seen two others since 1950. Iโ€™ll run the numbers [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | April 14, 2022
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How Did They Do? NOAA Analyzes its 2021/22 Winter Outlook

Some would call it the most famous annual March tradition. No, Iโ€™m not talking about March Madness or St. Patrickโ€™s Day. Iโ€™m talking about our annual look back at the Climate Prediction Centerโ€™s Winter Outlook to see how well it did. Warning: Some math will follow. At the ENSO Blog, weโ€™re not the types to simply give you a thumbs [โ€ฆ]

Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains | April 8, 2022
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NOAA ENSO March 2022 Update: La Niรฑa to Continue in to Summer and Potentially Beyond

Three-bean salads are a blend of sweet-sour tastiness, implying all good things come in threes. Well, depending on your opinion of La Niรฑa, maybe not all good things, as La Niรฑaโ€”the cool phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation climate patternโ€”reasserted itself in the tropical Pacific this past month with some of the strongest atmosphere-ocean coupling of our double-dip La Niรฑas [โ€ฆ]

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WeatherBrains | March 14, 2022
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